Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
